Abortion’s making headlines in America again. Per leaked information, the Supreme Court is set to overturn the landmark pro-choice ruling in Roe v Wade. Debates have begun in earnest.
The mainstream left and right have long-settled positions. The left’s pro-choice, opposing abortion restrictions in most or all cases. The right’s pro-life, favoring an abortion ban in most or all cases. For populists, centrists, and other groups outside the left/right binary, though, the issue is unsettled.
To a naive populist abortion’s a tough issue because America’s divided. You can’t ride a wave of public sentiment if you alienate half the public! Dodging the question doesn’t work either. It just pisses off both sides.
That’s not the real problem, though. If you look at the polling the American public has a vague consensus: 60% want abortion to be generally legal in the first trimester and 65% and 81% want it mostly outlawed in the second and third trimesters respectively. That’s roughly in-line with abortion laws across Europe, for what it’s worth. Appealing to public opinion isn’t the problem.
The problem’s that public support isn’t enough to win elections. You don’t necessarily need corporate megabucks or the backing of Hollywood and academia, as populists sometimes allege. You do need a core of die-hard supporters.
Running a winning campaign takes throngs of volunteers making your name known, ads selling you as the best person for the job, and “get out the vote” efforts (helping voters register and get to the polls). You also still need donations filling your coffers even if you shun mega-donors. Organizing and advertising aren’t free.
The approval of the general public won’t get you volunteers and donations if the general public doesn’t care much - which, with abortion, they don’t. When Pew asked voters to prioritize issues before the 2020 election, abortion ranked 12th out of 12. The public’s interest is certain to rise over the next few weeks due to the SCOTUS leak but it’s not likely to last.
A strong pro-life or pro-choice position, on the other hand, consistently generates enthusiasm. It’s counter-intuitive but adopting the most popular position on abortion hurts your chances. Two bored supporters who might not even vote are worth less than one passionate supporter.
It’s not rare for popular positions to come at the cost of enthusiasm. The 2016 campaigns of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump (as well as populist campaigns abroad) cleared this hurdle by riding the passion of the anti-elite zeitgeist. Both had talked about running for President in earlier elections but fizzled out.
Most years it’s not enough to be popular with the general public. You need to woo passionate interest groups like the pro-life and pro-choice lobbies. Americans all love apple pie but apple pie’s not winning any elections.